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Spatial Analysis of Drug-Susceptible and Multidrug-Resistant Cases of Tuberculosis, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2020-2023.
We characterized the spatial distribution of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) cases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a major metropolis in southeastern Asia, and explored demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with local TB burden. Hot spots of DS and MDR TB incidence were observed in the central parts of Ho Chi Minh City, and substantial heterogeneity was observed across wards. Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed for both DS TB and MDR TB. Ward-level TB incidence was associated with HIV prevalence and the male proportion of the population. No ward-level demographic and socioeconomic indicators were associated with MDR TB case count relative to total TB case count. Our findings might inform spatially targeted TB control strategies and provide insights for generating hypotheses about the nature of the relationship between DS and MDR TB in Ho Chi Minh City and the wider southeastern region of Asia.
The relationship between viral clearance rates and disease progression in early symptomatic COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis
Abstract Background Effective antiviral drugs accelerate viral clearance in acute COVID-19 infections; the relationship between accelerating viral clearance and reducing severe clinical outcomes is unclear. Methods A systematic review was conducted of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of antiviral therapies in early symptomatic COVID-19, where viral clearance data were available. Treatment benefit was defined clinically as the relative risk of hospitalization/death during follow-up (≥14 days), and virologically as the SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance rate ratio (VCRR). The VCRR is the ratio of viral clearance rates between the intervention and control arms. The relationship between the clinical and virological treatment effects was assessed by mixed-effects meta-regression. Results From 57 potentially eligible RCTs, VCRRs were derived for 44 (52 384 participants); 32 had ≥1 clinical endpoint in each arm. Overall, 9.7% (R2) of the variation in clinical benefit was explained by variation in VCRRs with an estimated linear coefficient of −0.92 (95% CI: −1.99 to 0.13; P = 0.08). However, this estimate was highly sensitive to the inclusion of the recent very large PANORAMIC trial. Omitting this outlier, half the variation in clinical benefit (R2 = 50.4%) was explained by variation in VCRRs [slope −1.47 (95% CI −2.43 to −0.51); P = 0.003], i.e. higher VCRRs were associated with an increased clinical benefit. Conclusion Methods of determining viral clearance in COVID-19 studies and the relationship to clinical outcomes vary greatly. As prohibitively large sample sizes are now required to show clinical treatment benefit in antiviral therapeutic assessments, viral clearance is a reasonable surrogate endpoint.
The PreQuine Platform: A novel diagnostic tool for measuring glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity and hemoglobin concentration
Quantitative diagnosis of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is essential for the safe administration of 8-aminoquinoline based radical cure for the treatment of Plasmodium vivax infections. Here, we present the PreQuine Platform (IVDS, USA), a quantitative biosensor that uses a dual-analyte assay for the simultaneous measurement of Hemoglobin (Hgb) levels and G6PD enzyme activity within the same sample. The platform relies on a downloadable mobile application. The device requires 10μl of whole blood and works with a reflectance-based meter. Comparing the G6PD measurement normalized by Hgb of 12 samples from the PreQuine Platform with reference measurements methods (spectrophotometry, Pointe Scientific, USA and hemoglobin meter, HemoCue, Sweden) showed a positive and significant agreement with a slope of 1.0091 and an intercept of -0.0379 under laboratory conditions. Next steps will be to conduct field trials in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the USA to assess diagnostic performance, user friendliness and acceptance.
Antenatal corticosteroids reduce neonatal mortality in settings without assisted ventilatory support: a retrospective cohort study of early preterm births on the Thailand-Myanmar border
Background Prematurity is the highest risk for under-five mortality globally. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of antenatal dexamethasone on neonatal mortality in early preterm in a resource-constrained setting without assisted ventilation. Methods This retrospective (2008-2013) cohort study in clinics for refugees/migrants on the Thai-Myanmar border included infants born <34 weeks gestation at home, in, or on the way to the clinic. Dexamethasone, 24 mg (three 8 mg intramuscular doses, every 8 hours), was prescribed to women at risk of preterm birth (28 to <34 weeks). Appropriate newborn care was available: including oxygen but not assisted ventilation. Mortality and maternal fever were compared by the number of doses (complete: three, incomplete (one or two), or no dose). A sub-cohort participated in neurodevelopmental testing at one year. Results Of 15,285 singleton births, 240 were included: 96 did not receive dexamethasone and 144 received one, two or three doses (56, 13 and 75, respectively). Of live-born infants followed to day 28, (n=168), early neonatal and neonatal mortality/1,000 livebirths (95%CI) with complete dosing was 217 (121–358) and 304 (190–449); compared to 394 (289–511) and 521 (407–633) with no dose. Compared to complete dosing, both incomplete and no dexamethasone were associated with elevated adjusted ORs 4.09 (1.39 to 12.00) and 3.13 (1.14 to 8.63), for early neonatal death. By contrast, for neonatal death, while there was clear evidence that no dosing was associated with higher mortality, adjusted OR 3.82 (1.42 to 10.27), the benefit of incomplete dosing was uncertain adjusted OR 1.75 (0.63 to 4.81). No adverse impact of dexamethasone on infant neurodevelopmental scores (12 months) or maternal fever was observed. Conclusions Neonatal mortality reduction is possible with complete dexamethasone dosing in pregnancies at risk of preterm birth in settings without capacity to provide assisted ventilation.
Case Report: A case of disseminated cutaneous listeriosis following appendicitis from Lao PDR
Background Listeria monocytogenes is a food-borne pathogen that is a rare cause of bacteraemia and meningitis in immunosuppressed patients, and carries a high mortality rate. Cutaneous manifestations of listeriosis are rare, and are usually associated with direct inoculation of the skin. Case A 41-year-old woman who initially presented to a hospital in Laos with appendicitis was diagnosed with disseminated listeriosis with cutaneous involvement. Intra-abdominal pathology probably contributed to bacterial bloodstream invasion. Initial treatment with meropenem was switched to ampicillin based on best practice, however our patient died 5 days after diagnosis. Conclusions This case highlights listeriosis as an important cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries, exacerbated by poor availability of laboratory diagnostics and ineffective empiric antibiotic regimens. Improvements in food hygiene, surveillance, and increased laboratory capacity are important strategies to reduce rates of infection and clinical outcomes.
Frequency and mortality rate following antimicrobial-resistant bloodstream infections in tertiary-care hospitals compared with secondary-care hospitals.
There are few studies comparing proportion, frequency, mortality and mortality rate following antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) infections between tertiary-care hospitals (TCHs) and secondary-care hospitals (SCHs) in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to inform intervention strategies. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the utility of an offline tool to generate AMR reports and data for a secondary data analysis. We conducted a secondary-data analysis on a retrospective, multicentre data of hospitalised patients in Thailand. Routinely collected microbiology and hospital admission data of 2012 to 2015, from 15 TCHs and 34 SCHs were analysed using the AMASS v2.0 (www.amass.website). We then compared the burden of AMR bloodstream infections (BSI) between those TCHs and SCHs. Of 19,665 patients with AMR BSI caused by pathogens under evaluation, 10,858 (55.2%) and 8,807 (44.8%) were classified as community-origin and hospital-origin BSI, respectively. The burden of AMR BSI was considerably different between TCHs and SCHs, particularly of hospital-origin AMR BSI. The frequencies of hospital-origin AMR BSI per 100,000 patient-days at risk in TCHs were about twice that in SCHs for most pathogens under evaluation (for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii [CRAB]: 18.6 vs. 7.0, incidence rate ratio 2.77; 95%CI 1.72-4.43, p<0.001; for carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa [CRPA]: 3.8 vs. 2.0, p = 0.0073; third-generation cephalosporin resistant Escherichia coli [3GCREC]: 12.1 vs. 7.0, p<0.001; third-generation cephalosporin resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae [3GCRKP]: 12.2 vs. 5.4, p<0.001; carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae [CRKP]: 1.6 vs. 0.7, p = 0.045; and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus [MRSA]: 5.1 vs. 2.5, p = 0.0091). All-cause in-hospital mortality (%) following hospital-origin AMR BSI was not significantly different between TCHs and SCHs (all p>0.20). Due to the higher frequencies, all-cause in-hospital mortality rates following hospital-origin AMR BSI per 100,000 patient-days at risk were considerably higher in TCHs for most pathogens (for CRAB: 10.2 vs. 3.6,mortality rate ratio 2.77; 95%CI 1.71 to 4.48, p<0.001; CRPA: 1.6 vs. 0.8; p = 0.020; 3GCREC: 4.0 vs. 2.4, p = 0.009; 3GCRKP, 4.0 vs. 1.8, p<0.001; CRKP: 0.8 vs. 0.3, p = 0.042; and MRSA: 2.3 vs. 1.1, p = 0.023). In conclusion, the burden of AMR infections in some LMICs might differ by hospital type and size. In those countries, activities and resources for antimicrobial stewardship and infection control programs might need to be tailored based on hospital setting. The frequency and in-hospital mortality rate of hospital-origin AMR BSI are important indicators and should be routinely measured to monitor the burden of AMR in every hospital with microbiology laboratories in LMICs.
A pharmacokinetic randomised interventional study to optimise dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine dosing for malaria preventive treatment in Malawian infants: A protocol for the OPTIMAL study
Background A newer malaria preventive treatment, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), has been identified as an effective alternative to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, to which malaria parasites are increasingly becoming resistant. However, how best to dose DP to safely prevent malaria in infants when aligned with routine health facility visits remains unresolved. As infants are usually excluded from participating in early dose optimisation clinical trials, the present study seeks to shift the paradigm and develop optimised DP dosing strategies for malaria preventive treatment in infants. Methods A randomised, single-blind, placebo-controlled, two-arm, interventional study will be conducted in southern Malawi. At 10 weeks (2.5 months) of age, 220 eligible infants will be randomised to receive DP (intervention group, n=110) or placebo (control group, n=110) with routine vaccines. They will be followed until 12 months of age and receive three further DP or placebo treatment courses at 14 weeks, six- and nine months. Infants in the intervention group will contribute capillary samples for piperaquine concentrations pre-dose and at three-, seven-, 14- and 28-days post-DP dosing as well as capillary samples pre-dose and on day 28 post-DP to quantify malaria parasitaemia using microscopy and quantitative PCR. In the control group, infants will contribute capillary blood samples for malaria parasitaemia at the same time points as the intervention group. Malaria incidence and adverse events will be compared between the two groups. Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling techniques will be applied to derive feasible, optimised, efficacious, and safe DP dosing strategies for malaria preventive treatment in infancy. Conclusions The findings will provide the much-needed evidence to inform DP dosing for malaria preventive treatment in infants when administered with routine health facility visits. Additionally, they will help inform optimal DP dosing for malaria treatment in infants. The trial was registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry; (PACTR202211575727659) on 8 November 2022. Protocol version 3.1, dated 29 September 2022.
Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.
African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.
Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study
AbstractReliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76–0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74–0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87–0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10–30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required.
Target-enrichment sequencing yields valuable genomic data for challenging-to-culture bacteria of public health importance.
Genomic data contribute invaluable information to the epidemiological investigation of pathogens of public health importance. However, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of bacteria typically relies on culture, which represents a major hurdle for generating such data for a wide range of species for which culture is challenging. In this study, we assessed the use of culture-free target-enrichment sequencing as a method for generating genomic data for two bacterial species: (1) Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax in both people and animals and whose culture requires high-level containment facilities; and (2) Mycoplasma amphoriforme, a fastidious emerging human respiratory pathogen. We obtained high-quality genomic data for both species directly from clinical samples, with sufficient coverage (>15×) for confident variant calling over at least 80% of the baited genomes for over two thirds of the samples tested. Higher qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (indicative of lower pathogen concentrations in the samples), pooling libraries prior to capture, and lower captured library concentration were all statistically associated with lower capture efficiency. The Ct value had the highest predictive value, explaining 52 % of the variation in capture efficiency. Samples with Ct values ≤30 were over six times more likely to achieve the threshold coverage than those with a Ct > 30. We conclude that target-enrichment sequencing provides a valuable alternative to standard WGS following bacterial culture and creates opportunities for an improved understanding of the epidemiology and evolution of many clinically important pathogens for which culture is challenging.
Safety, pharmacokinetics, and potential neurological interactions of ivermectin, tafenoquine, and chloroquine in Rhesus macaques.
Ivermectin (IVM) could be used for malaria control as treated individuals are lethal to blood-feeding Anopheles, resulting in reduced transmission. Tafenoquine (TQ) is used to clear the liver reservoir of Plasmodium vivax and as a prophylactic treatment in high-risk populations. It has been suggested to use ivermectin and tafenoquine in combination, but the safety of these drugs in combination has not been evaluated. Early derivatives of 8-aminoquinolones (8-AQ) were neurotoxic, and ivermectin is an inhibitor of the P-glycoprotein (P-gp) blood brain barrier (BBB) transporter. Thus, there is concern that co-administration of these drugs could be neurotoxic. This study aimed to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetic interaction of tafenoquine, ivermectin, and chloroquine (CQ) in Rhesus macaques. No clinical, biochemistry, or hematological outcomes of concern were observed. The Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB) was employed to assess potential neurological deficits following drug administration. Some impairment was observed with tafenoquine alone and in the same monkeys with subsequent co-administrations. Co-administration of chloroquine and tafenoquine resulted in increased plasma exposure to tafenoquine. Urine concentrations of the 5,6 orthoquinone TQ metabolite were increased with co-administration of tafenoquine and ivermectin. There was an increase in ivermectin plasma exposure when co-administered with chloroquine. No interaction of tafenoquine on ivermectin was observed in vitro. Chloroquine and trace levels of ivermectin, but not tafenoquine, were observed in the cerebrospinal fluid. The 3''-O-demethyl ivermectin metabolite was observed in macaque plasma but not in urine or cerebrospinal fluid. Overall, the combination of ivermectin, tafenoquine, and chloroquine did not have clinical, neurological, or pharmacological interactions of concern in macaques; therefore, this combination could be considered for evaluation in human trials.
Quality of Essential Medicines from Different Sources in Enugu and Anambra, Nigeria
This study investigated the quality of 13 essential medicines in the states of Enugu and Anambra, Nigeria. A total of 260 samples were purchased from licensed pharmaceutical manufacturers and wholesalers and from vendors in pharmaceutical markets with unclear licensing status. Samples were analyzed for identity, content, and dissolution according to the United States Pharmacopeia (USP) 42 monographs. Forty-five samples of this study could be examined for authenticity with the Mobile Authentication Service scheme of the Nigerian National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control. Out of all samples, 25.4% did not comply with the USP 42 specifications. Strikingly, 21 out of 22 dexamethasone tablet samples (95%) were out of specification (OOS). Nine out of 19 glibenclamide samples (47%) failed dissolution testing, and 7 out of 17 cotrimoxazole samples (41%) failed assay testing. Medicines against noncommunicable diseases showed a slightly higher percentage of OOS samples than anti-infectives (21.2% versus 17.6%). The rates of OOS samples were similar in medicines stated to be produced in Nigeria, India, and China but were very different between individual manufacturers from each of these countries of origin. Therefore, prequalification of products, manufacturers, and suppliers are very important for quality assurance in medicine procurement. Unexpectedly, the total proportions of OOS samples were similar from licensed vendors (25.2%) and from markets (25.5%). Four samples (1.5%), all collected in markets, were clearly falsified and did not contain the declared active pharmaceutical ingredients. The proportion of falsified medicines was found to be lower than frequently reported in the media for Nigeria.
Investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and clustering of attendances for mental health services to inform policy and resource allocation in Thailand.
BackgroundMental illness poses a substantial global public health challenge, including in Thailand, where exploration of access to mental health services is limited. The spatial and temporal dimensions of mental illness in the country are not extensively studied, despite the recognized association between poor mental health and socioeconomic inequalities. Gaining insights into these dimensions is crucial for effective public health interventions and resource allocation.MethodsThis retrospective study analyzed mental health service utilization data in Thailand from 2015 to 2023. Temporal trends in annual numbers of individuals visiting mental health services by diagnosis were examined, while spatial pattern analysis employed Moran's I statistics to assess autocorrelation, identify small-area clustering, and hotspots. The implications of our findings for mental health resource allocation and policy were discussed.ResultsBetween 2015 and 2023, mental health facilities documented a total of 13,793,884 visits. The study found anxiety, schizophrenia, and depression emerged as the top three illnesses for mental health visits, with an increase in patient attendance following the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Spatial analysis identified areas of significance for various disorders across different regions of Thailand. Positive correlations between certain disorder pairs were found in specific regions, suggesting shared risk factors or comorbidities.ConclusionsThis study highlights spatial and temporal variations in individuals visiting services for different mental disorders in Thailand, shedding light on service gaps and socioeconomic issues. Addressing these disparities requires increased attention to mental health, the development of appropriate interventions, and overcoming barriers to accessibility. The findings provide a baseline for policymakers and stakeholders to allocate resources and implement culturally responsive interventions to improve mental health outcomes.
Global burden associated with 85 pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
BackgroundDespite a global epidemiological transition towards increased burden of non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Understanding the burden of a wide range of infectious diseases, and its variation by geography and age, is pivotal to research priority setting and resource mobilisation globally.MethodsWe estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with 85 pathogens in 2019, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. The term pathogen included causative agents, pathogen groups, infectious conditions, and aggregate categories. We applied a novel methodological approach to account for underlying, immediate, and intermediate causes of death, which counted every death for which a pathogen had a role in the pathway to death. We refer to this measure as the burden associated with infection, which was estimated by combining different sources of information. To compare the burden among all pathogens, we used pathogen-specific ratios to incorporate the burden of immediate and intermediate causes of death for pathogens modelled previously by the GBD. We created the ratios by using multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, linkage data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data to estimate the fraction of deaths coming from the pathway to death chain. We multiplied the pathogen-specific ratios by age-specific years of life lost (YLLs), calculated with GBD 2019 methods, and then added the adjusted YLLs to age-specific years lived with disability (YLDs) from GBD 2019 to produce adjusted DALYs to account for deaths in the chain. We used standard GBD methods to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates of DALYs by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. We provided burden estimates pertaining to all ages and specifically to the under 5 years age group.FindingsGlobally in 2019, an estimated 704 million (95% UI 610-820) DALYs were associated with 85 different pathogens, including 309 million (250-377; 43·9% of the burden) in children younger than 5 years. This burden accounted for 27·7% (and 65·5% in those younger than 5 years) of the previously reported total DALYs from all causes in 2019. Comparing super-regions, considerable differences were observed in the estimated pathogen-associated burdens in relation to DALYs from all causes, with the highest burden observed in sub-Saharan Africa (314 million [270-368] DALYs; 61·5% of total regional burden) and the lowest in the high-income super-region (31·8 million [25·4-40·1] DALYs; 9·8%). Three leading pathogens were responsible for more than 50 million DALYs each in 2019: tuberculosis (65·1 million [59·0-71·2]), malaria (53·6 million [27·0-91·3]), and HIV or AIDS (52·1 million [46·6-60·9]). Malaria was the leading pathogen for DALYs in children younger than 5 years (37·2 million [17·8-64·2]). We also observed substantial burden associated with previously less recognised pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus and specific Gram-negative bacterial species (ie, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Helicobacter pylori). Conversely, some pathogens had a burden that was smaller than anticipated.InterpretationOur detailed breakdown of DALYs associated with a comprehensive list of pathogens on a global, regional, and country level has revealed the magnitude of the problem and helps to indicate where research funding mismatch might exist. Given the disproportionate impact of infection on low-income and middle-income countries, an essential next step is for countries and relevant stakeholders to address these gaps by making targeted investments.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
Prognostic accuracy of screening tools for clinical deterioration in adults with suspected sepsis in northeastern Thailand: a cohort validation study
Abstract Background We sought to assess the performance of commonly used clinical scoring systems to predict imminent clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized with suspected infection in rural Thailand. Methods Patients with suspected infection were prospectively enrolled within 24 hours of admission to a referral hospital in northeastern Thailand between 2013 and 2017. In patients not requiring intensive medical interventions, multiple enrollment scores were calculated including the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Between the Flags (BTF) and the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score. Scores were tested for predictive accuracy of clinical deterioration, defined as a new requirement of mechanical ventilation, vasoactive medications, ICU admission, and/or death approximately 1 day after enrollment. The association of each score with clinical deterioration was evaluated by logistic regression and discrimination was assessed by generating areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results 2680/4989 enrolled patients met criteria for secondary analysis and 100/2680 (4%) experienced clinical deterioration within 1 day following enrollment. NEWS had the highest discrimination for predicting clinical deterioration (AUROC 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.83) compared to MEWS (AUROC 0.67, 95% CI 0.63-0.73, p<0.0001), qSOFA (AUROC 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.70, p<0.0001), and BTF (AUROC 0.69, 95% CI 0.64-0.75, p<0.001). NEWS ≥ 5 yielded optimal sensitivity and specificity for clinical deterioration prediction. Conclusion In patients hospitalized with suspected infection in a resource-limited setting in Southeast Asia, NEWS can identify patients at risk of imminent clinical deterioration with greater accuracy than other clinical scoring systems.
Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).
BackgroundEffective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations.MethodsSerial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907.FindingsBetween Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42).InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration.FundingWellcome Trust.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid vaccination in Lao PDR.
BackgroundTyphoid vaccination has been shown to be an effective intervention to prevent enteric fever and is under consideration for inclusion in the national immunization program in Lao PDR.MethodsA cost-utility analysis was performed using an age-structured static decision tree model to estimate the costs and health outcomes of introducing TCV. Vaccination strategies combined with five delivery approaches in different age groups compared to no vaccination were considered from the societal perspective, using the Gavi price of 1.5 USD per dose. The vaccination program was considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than a threshold of 1 GDP per capita for Lao PDR, equivalent to USD 2,535 in 2020.ResultsIn the model, we estimated 172.2 cases of enteric fever, with 1.3 deaths and a total treatment cost of USD 7,244, based on a birth cohort of 164,662 births without TCV vaccination that was followed over their lifetime. To implement a TCV vaccination program over the lifetime horizon, the estimated cost of the vaccine and administration costs would be between USD 470,934 and USD 919,186. Implementation of the TCV vaccination program would prevent between 14 and 106 cases and 0.1 to 0.8 deaths. None of the vaccination programs appeared to be cost-effective.ConclusionsInclusion of TCV in the national vaccination program in Lao PDR would only be cost-effective if the true typhoid incidence is 25-times higher than our current estimate.