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Global health experts have united in a call for governments and international organisations around the world to plan strategically for the coordinated production, equitable distribution and surveillance of COVID-19 medical products to ensure access to quality-assured medications for everyone.
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Expanding the roles of community health workers to sustain programmes during malaria elimination: a meeting report on operational research in Southeast Asia
AbstractIn Southeast Asia malaria elimination is targeted by 2030. Cambodia aims to achieve this by 2025, driven in large part by the urgent need to control the spread of artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria infections. Rapid elimination depends on sustaining early access to diagnosis and effective treatment. In much of Cambodia, rapid elimination will rely on a village malaria worker (VMW) network. Yet as malaria declines and is no longer a common cause of febrile illness, VMWs may become less popular with febrile patients, as VMWs do not diagnose or treat other conditions at present. There is a risk that VMWs become inactive and malaria rebounds before the complete interruption of transmission is achieved.During 2021–23 a large-scale operational research study was conducted in western Cambodia to explore how a VMW network could be sustained by including health activities that cover non-malarial illnesses to encourage febrile patients to continue to attend. 105 VMWs received new rapid diagnostic tests (including dengue antigen–antibody and combined malaria/C-reactive protein tests), were trained in electronic data collection, and attended health education packages on hygiene and sanitation, disease surveillance and first aid, management of mild illness, and vaccination and antenatal care.In August 2023 the National Malaria Control Programme of Cambodia convened a stakeholder meeting in Battambang, Cambodia. Findings from the study were reviewed in the context of current malaria elimination strategies. The discussions informed policy options to sustain the relevance of the VMW network in Cambodia, and the potential for its integration with other health worker networks. This expansion could ensure VMWs remain active and relevant until malaria elimination is accomplished.
Diagnostic challenges and antibody kinetics in a paediatric traveller with scrub typhus
Diagnosing scrub typhus in travellers is challenging due to symptom similarities with other travel-related illnesses and limited early diagnostic tools. We present a distinctive case of scrub typhus in a child traveller, providing a comprehensive account of the case, the diagnostic challenges encountered, laboratory findings and the dynamics of antibodies.
Medication adherence framework: A population‐based pharmacokinetic approach and its application in antimalarial treatment assessments
AbstractWe reported here on the development of a pharmacometric framework to assess patient adherence, by using two population‐based approaches – the percentile and the Bayesian method. Three different dosing strategies were investigated in patients prescribed a total of three doses; (1) non‐observed therapy, (2) directly observed administration of the first dose, and (3) directly observed administration of the first two doses. The percentile approach used population‐based simulations to derive optimal concentration percentile cutoff values from the distribution of simulated drug concentrations at a specific time. This was done for each adherence scenario and compared to full adherence. The Bayesian approach calculated the posterior probability of each adherence scenario at a given drug concentration. The predictive performance (i.e., Youden index, receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) of both approaches were highly influenced by sample collection time (early was better) and interindividual variability (smaller was better). The complexity of the structural model and the half‐life had a minimal impact on the predictive performance of these methods. The impact of the assay limitation (LOQ) on the predictive performance was relatively small if the fraction of LOQ data was less than 20%. Overall, the percentile method performed similar or better for adherence predictions compared to the Bayesian approach, with the latter showing slightly better results when investigating the adherence to the last dose only. The percentile approach showed acceptable adherence predictions (area under ROC curve > 0.74) when sampling the antimalarial drugs piperaquine at day 7 postdose and lumefantrine at day 3 postdose (i.e., 12 h after the last dose). This could be a highly useful approach when evaluating programmatic implementations of preventive and curative antimalarial treatment programs in endemic areas.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of a multiplex lateral flow rapid diagnostic test for acute non-malarial febrile illness in rural Cambodia and Bangladesh.
BACKGROUND: Multiplex lateral flow rapid diagnostic tests (LF-RDTs) may aid management of patients with acute non-malarial febrile illness (NMFI) in rural south and southeast Asia. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness in Cambodia and Bangladesh of a putative, as-yet-undeveloped LF-RDT capable of diagnosing enteric fever and dengue, as well as measuring C-reactive protein (CRP) to guide antibiotic prescription, in primary care patients with acute NMFI. METHODS: A country-specific decision tree model-based cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health system plus limited societal perspective considering the cost of antimicrobial resistance. Parameters were based on data from a large observational study on the regional epidemiology of acute febrile illness, published studies, and procurement price lists. Costs were expressed in US$ (value in 2022), and cost-effectiveness evaluated by comparing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios with conservative opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay thresholds and the more widely used threshold of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). FINDINGS: Compared to standard of care, LF-RDT-augmented clinical assessment was dominant in Cambodia, being more effective and cost-saving. The cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in Bangladesh was US$482, slightly above the conservative opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold of US$388 and considerably lower than the GDP-based threshold of US$2687. The intervention remained dominant in Cambodia and well below the GDP-based threshold in Bangladesh when antimicrobial resistance costs were disregarded. INTERPRETATION: These findings provide guidance for academic, industry, and policymaker stakeholders involved in acute NMFI diagnostics. While definitive conclusions cannot be made in the absence of established thresholds, our results suggest that similar results are highly likely in some target settings and possible in others. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Government, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, and Rotary Foundation.
Defining the hidden burden of disease in rural communities in Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand: a cross-sectional household health survey protocol
IntroductionIn low-income and middle-income countries in Southeast Asia, the burden of diseases among rural population remains poorly understood, posing a challenge for effective healthcare prioritisation and resource allocation. Addressing this knowledge gap, the South and Southeast Asia Community-based Trials Network (SEACTN) will undertake a survey that aims to determine the prevalence of a wide range of non-communicable and communicable diseases, as one of the key initiatives of its first project—the Rural Febrile Illness project (RFI). This survey, alongside other RFI studies that explore fever aetiology, leading causes of mortality, and establishing village and health facility maps and profiles, will provide an updated epidemiological background of the rural areas where the network is operational.Methods and analysisDuring 2022–2023, a cross-sectional household survey will be conducted across three SEACTN sites in Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand. Using a two-stage cluster-sampling approach, we will employ a probability-proportional-to-size sample method for village, and a simple random sample for household, selection, enrolling all members from the selected households. Approximately 1500 participants will be enrolled per country. Participants will undergo questionnaire interview, physical examination and haemoglobin point-of-care testing. Blood samples will be collected and sent to central laboratories to test for chronic and acute infections, and biomarkers associated with cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Prevalences will be presented as an overall estimate by country, and stratified and compared across sites and participants’ sociodemographic characteristics. Associations between disease status, risk factors and other characteristics will be explored.Ethics and disseminationThis study protocol has been approved by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, National Research Ethics Committee of Bangladesh Medical Research Council, the Cambodian National Ethics Committee for Health Research, the Chiang Rai Provincial Public Health Research Ethical Committee. The results will be disseminated via the local health authorities and partners, peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.Trial registration numberNCT05389540.
A multi-country analysis of COVID-19 hospitalizations by vaccination status.
BackgroundIndividuals vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), when infected, can still develop disease that requires hospitalization. It remains unclear whether these patients differ from hospitalized unvaccinated patients with regard to presentation, coexisting comorbidities, and outcomes.MethodsHere, we use data from an international consortium to study this question and assess whether differences between these groups are context specific. Data from 83,163 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (34,843 vaccinated, 48,320 unvaccinated) from 38 countries were analyzed.FindingsWhile typical symptoms were more often reported in unvaccinated patients, comorbidities, including some associated with worse prognosis in previous studies, were more common in vaccinated patients. Considerable between-country variation in both in-hospital fatality risk and vaccinated-versus-unvaccinated difference in this outcome was observed.ConclusionsThese findings will inform allocation of healthcare resources in future surges as well as design of longer-term international studies to characterize changes in clinical profile of hospitalized COVID-19 patients related to vaccination history.FundingThis work was made possible by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome (215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z, and 220757/Z/20/Z); the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1209135); and the philanthropic support of the donors to the University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund (0009109). Additional funders are listed in the "acknowledgments" section.
The burden and dynamics of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 in England
AbstractHospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics1,2, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital–community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens.
Identification of Burkholderia cepacia strains that express a Burkholderia pseudomallei -like capsular polysaccharide
ABSTRACT Burkholderia pseudomallei and Burkholderia cepacia are Gram-negative, soil-dwelling bacteria that are found in a wide variety of environmental niches. While B. pseudomallei is the causative agent of melioidosis in humans and animals, members of the B. cepacia complex typically only cause disease in immunocompromised hosts. In this study, we report the identification of B. cepacia strains isolated from either patients or soil in Laos and Thailand that express a B. pseudomallei -like 6-deoxyheptan capsular polysaccharide (CPS). These B. cepacia strains were initially identified based on their positive reactivity in a latex agglutination assay that uses the CPS-specific monoclonal antibody (mAb) 4B11. Mass spectrometry and recA sequencing confirmed the identity of these isolates as B. cepacia (formerly genomovar I). Total carbohydrates extracted from B. cepacia cell pellets reacted with B. pseudomallei CPS-specific mAbs MCA147, 3C5, and 4C4, but did not react with the B. pseudomallei lipopolysaccharide-specific mAb Pp-PS-W. Whole genome sequencing of the B. cepacia isolates revealed the presence of genes demonstrating significant homology to those comprising the B. pseudomallei CPS biosynthetic gene cluster. Collectively, our results provide compelling evidence that B. cepacia strains expressing the same CPS as B. pseudomallei co-exist in the environment alongside B. pseudomallei . Since CPS is a target that is often used for presumptive identification of B. pseudomallei , it is possible that the occurrence of these unique B. cepacia strains may complicate the diagnosis of melioidosis. IMPORTANCE Burkholderia pseudomallei , the etiologic agent of melioidosis, is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The 6-deoxyheptan capsular polysaccharide (CPS) expressed by this bacterial pathogen is a promising target antigen that is useful for rapidly diagnosing melioidosis. Using assays incorporating CPS-specific monoclonal antibodies, we identified both clinical and environmental isolates of Burkholderia cepacia that express the same CPS antigen as B. pseudomallei . Because of this, it is important that staff working in melioidosis-endemic areas are aware that these strains co-exist in the same niches as B. pseudomallei and do not solely rely on CPS-based assays such as latex-agglutination, AMD Plus Rapid Tests, or immunofluorescence tests for the definitive identification of B. pseudomallei isolates.
Trio fluorophore-based phenotypic assay for the detection of artemisinin-induced growth-arrested Plasmodium falciparum in human erythrocytes.
Artemisinin combination therapy remains effective for the treatment of falciparum malaria. However, Plasmodium falciparum can escape the effects of artemisinin by arresting their growth. The growth-arrested parasites cannot be distinguished from nonviable parasites with standard microscopy techniques due to their morphological similarities. Here, we demonstrated the efficacy of a new laboratory assay that is compatible with the artemisinin susceptibility test. As a result of the differential cell permeabilities of two DNA-binding fluorophores, growth-arrested P. falciparum can be distinguished from parasites killed by artemisinin, since the latter lose cell membrane permeability. This fluorescence-based assay increased the sensitivity and specificity of the ring survival assay in the assessment of artemisinin susceptibility. When combined with a third fluorophore-conjugated anti-human leukocyte antibody, this trio fluorophore assay became more useful in identifying growth-arrested parasites in mock human blood samples. This novel assay is a simple and rapid technique for monitoring artemisinin resistance with greater sensitivity and accuracy compared with morphology-based observations under a light microscope.
Scaling up One Health: A network analysis in Lao PDR.
BackgroundOne Health focuses on sustainable health for humans, animals, and ecosystems. The approach has been well demonstrated, yet most efforts have not been scaled up. Understanding the organisations involved in scaling up processes is critical to translating research into practice. The Lao People's Democratic Republic has successfully implemented One Health projects for multiple decades; however, the organisational network has not been described and scaling up efforts have been limited.MethodsData from organisations involved in One Health projects over the past five years were collected by key-informant interview or workshop. The network was investigated using a mixture of quantitative network analysis and qualitative thematic analysis.ResultsThe organisational network was quantitatively described as sparse and centralised. Organisations were required to harness pre-existing relationships to maximise scarce resources and make co-ordination and alignment of priorities more efficient. A lack of international organisations in the top 10% of resource sharing metrics suggests a potential disconnect between donors. This was reflected in the challenges faced by national organisations and a feeling of being stretched thin over numerous externally funded projects with donor-driven priorities.ConclusionsIt appears that high-level political support for country ownership of development and aid priorities remains unrealised. Developing network capacity and capability may assist scaling up efforts and build resilience in the network and its core organisations. This may allow for the inclusion of more development, education, environment, and water, sanitation, and hygiene organisations that were perceived to be lacking. Future One Health programmes should focus on practical activities that do not overload staff capacity. There is much for One Health to learn about the art of scaling up and organisations are encouraged to include implementation science in their research to inform future scaling up efforts.
Forensic investigation of falsified antimalarials using isotope ratio mass spectrometry: a pilot investigation.
We explored whether isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) is useful to investigate the origin of falsified antimalarials. Forty-four falsified and genuine antimalarial samples (artesunate, artemether-lumefantrine, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and sulphamethopyrazine-pyrimethamine) were analyzed in bulk for carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and oxygen (O) element concentrations and stable isotope ratios. The insoluble fraction ("starch") was extracted from 26 samples and analyzed. Samples of known geographical origin maize, a common source of excipient starch, were used to produce a comparison dataset to predict starch source. In both an initial (n = 18) and a follow-on set of samples that contained/claimed to contain artesunate/artemether (n = 26), falsified antimalarials had a range of C concentrations less than genuine comparator antimalarials and δ13C values higher than genuine comparators. The δ13C values of falsified antimalarials suggested that C4 plant-based organic material (e.g., starch derived from maize) had been included. Using the known-origin maize samples, predictions for growth water δ18O values for the extracted "starch" ranged from - 6.10 to - 1.62‰. These findings suggest that IRMS may be a useful tool for profiling falsified antimalarials. We found that C4 ingredients were exclusively used in falsified antimalarials versus genuine antimalarials, and that it may be possible to predict potential growth water δ18O values for the starch present in falsified antimalarials.