Cookies on this website
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Continue' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.
Skip to main content

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 x reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.

Type

Journal article

Journal

Journal of health, population, and nutrition

Publication Date

12/2007

Volume

25

Pages

469 - 478

Addresses

Carman and Ann Adams Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Michigan, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI 48201, USA. jimchen@med.wayne.edu

Keywords

Feces, Humans, Salmonella typhi, Typhoid Fever, Population Surveillance, Incidence, Prevalence, Regression Analysis, Predictive Value of Tests, Perception, Developing Countries, Adolescent, Child, Child, Preschool, Asia, Female, Male