Richard J Maude*, Sompob Saralamba, Wirichada Pongtavornpinyo, Lisa J White

 Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.

 *Contact: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

PROJECT OUTLINE

Introduction
Malaria kills over 1 million people every year. Previous attempts to control malaria have failed and for the past 40 years global eradication was thought to be impossible. However, there are now new, more effective, tools available such as insecticide treated bednets and more powerful antimalarial drugs. There is also unprecedented commitment from international bodies such as the WHO and the Roll Back Malaria Partnership. As a result, global malaria eradication is very much back on the international agenda. The difficulty is knowing which intervention strategies to use and how best to combine them to achieve maximum impact in a variety of different settings. Mathematical modelling has great potential as a tool to help guide and inform these decisions by predicting the impact of various strategies before funds are committed. Although many models of malaria exist, very little modelling of malaria elimination has thus far been attempted.

Methods
We are developing the first user-friendly mathematical model to examine the elimination potential of all the current major malaria control interventions, alone and in combination, in a variety of settings. We will make this model freely available to all at this internet address. This will allow policy makers and public health specialists to enter data specific to their location and run the model themselves using it as a tool to help plan local elimination strategies. The modelling code will be in a universal programming language so specialists, programmers and other modellers can download it and see how it is constructed. Users can then make suggestions and help develop refinements and additions via an online forum. Our team will work in collaboration with these users to continuously update and refine the model to maximise its potential and to assist non-mathematicians with the interpretation of the model results.

Summary
We will produce a free, internet-based, user-friendly and interactive mathematical model of malaria elimination as a tool for policy makers. We will develop and refine this model in collaboration with users to maximise its potential as an educational and public health policy planning tool. This will enable optimisation of local malaria elimination strategies before commitment of valuable resources. 

DISCLAIMER

The Malaria Elimination website is made up of:

1) General descriptive content relating to the project – this is subject to the same terms of use as for MORU generally;

2) A mathematical model, which is fully described here and is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial License, [insert link] which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited; and

3) The modelling code, which is in Berkeley Madonna format. This is available on request via a forum so that specialists, programmers and other modellers can download it, see how it is constructed and make suggestions for its development. The modelling code is not generally available during this prototype phase, other than on request through the forum.

Users should note carefully the following:

a) The model is intended to allow policy makers and public health specialists to enter their own data specific to their location and run the model themselves using it as a tool to explore the possible relative impact of different local elimination strategies.

b) By definition, this simple model does not include every available consideration relating to malaria prevention: the model requires very little data input and can be run quickly for a range of scenarios to understand the more general behaviour of malaria transmission.

c) It is therefore suitable to be used as a first step by policy makers and only for investigation of the relative effects of different elimination strategies in the short- to medium-term: note that, for longer term planning, more complex and detailed models will be required.

Given the above considerations, MORU can accept no responsibility for the consequences of reliance on the model and its outputs – including any loss arising. Specifically, none of MORU, Mahidol University, the University of Oxford or the Wellcome Trust make any representation or warranty of any kind or accept any liability concerning the content of or information on the website, and any reliance you place on such content or information is therefore strictly at your own risk.

THIS PAGE IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION!

Coming soon to this page: mathematical model of malaria elimination