Richard J Maude*, Sompob Saralamba, Wirichada Pongtavornpinyo, Lisa J White

Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine (MORU), Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.

*Contact: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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Coming soon to this page: mathematical model of malaria elimination
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PROJECT OUTLINE

Introduction

Malaria kills over 1 million people every year. Previous attempts to control malaria have failed and for the past 40 years global eradication was thought to be impossible. However, there are now new, more effective, tools available such as insecticide treated bednets and more powerful antimalarial drugs. There is also unprecedented commitment from international bodies such as the WHO and the Roll Back Malaria Partnership. As a result, global malaria eradication is very much back on the international agenda. The difficulty is knowing which intervention strategies to use and how best to combine them to achieve maximum impact in a variety of different settings. Mathematical modelling has great potential as a tool to help guide and inform these decisions by predicting the impact of various strategies before funds are committed. Although many models of malaria exist, very little modelling of malaria elimination has thus far been attempted.

Methods

We are developing the first user-friendly mathematical model to examine the elimination potential of all the current major malaria control interventions, alone and in combination, in a variety of settings. We will make this model freely available to all at this internet address. This will allow policy makers and public health specialists to enter data specific to their location and run the model themselves using it as a tool to help plan local elimination strategies. The modelling code will be in a universal programming language so specialists, programmers and other modellers can download it and see how it is constructed. Users can then make suggestions and help develop refinements and additions via an online forum. Our team will work in collaboration with these users to continuously update and refine the model to maximise its potential and to assist non-mathematicians with the interpretation of the model results.

Summary

We will produce a free, internet-based, user-friendly and interactive mathematical model of malaria elimination as a tool for policy makers. We will develop and refine this model in collaboration with users to maximise its potential as an educational and public health policy planning tool. This will enable optimisation of local malaria elimination strategies before commitment of valuable resources.