Mathematical and Economic Modelling

Significant achievements in mathematical and economic modelling 2009-2014

MORU-math-modelling-team
The MAEMOD team try a new approach to modelling
  1. Over 100 publications since the last core renewal consisting of primary research, reviews and invited commentaries, many of which are in high impact journals.
  2. Modelling artemisinin resistant malaria using both in-host and transmission models.
  3. Multiple modelling projects to support malaria elimination, including the use of spatially explicit models based on near real time data from malaria control programmes. Contributed to the design of a Medicins Sans Frontiers malaria elimination trial now underway in Cambodia.
  4. Worked with WWARN to develop standardized methods of interpreting the malaria parasite clearance curve.
  5. Transmission modelling of leptospirosis, nosocomial Gram+ve and Gram-ve infections and influenza in a variety of settings.
  6. Completed an evaluation of pandemic influenza plans and association with pandemic influenza outcomes.
  7. Developed a modelling framework to define disease heterogeneity to guide the empirical treatment of febrile illness in resource poor settings.
  8. Completed cost-effectiveness studies of amongst others the use of artesunate in severe malaria, home-management of malaria programmes, melioidosis vaccine candidates, and markers of bacterial infection such as procalcitonin.
  9. Development of methods for the analysis of combined epidemiological and whole genome sequence data - initially applied to whole genome sequence data for MRSA from Thailand.
  10. Set up collaborations with the malaria control programs of Vietnam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh and India to support policymakers and implementers in cost-effective malaria elimination strategy design.